A common occurrence that happens in the majority of midterm elections is, the party out of power picks up enough seats to flip the United States House of Representatives. Democrats are heavily relying on this trend to continue in November of 2018 however, they have not landed on a common message that transcends the far-left corridors of their party.
Numerous indicators are showing that Democrats are not in a position to retake the House of Representatives in November, most notably their stance on immigration as opposed to voters’ stance on immigration. There are other indicators signaling November flop on behalf of Democrats such as fundraising, party divisions, and the latest round of primary elections. All of which are indicating that Democrats are not in a strong position to increase their power in Congress this November.
As of late, the Democratic Party’s message has been driven by a socialist agenda that has found an accepting home within America’s political left. This agenda includes the abolishment of Immigration and Naturalization Enforcement (ICE) coupled with the desire to implement an ‘open borders’ type of immigration policy in which no immigration laws would be enforced.
The “Democratic Socialist” immigration policy flies in the face of recent polling by Rasmussen Reports, which shows that 68% of voters believe that illegal immigration is a “major problem” and that the federal government is not doing enough to fix it. According to Rasmussen Reports, only 23% of voters believe that illegal immigration is not a serious problem and just 9% believe that illegal immigration is “not at all serious.”
Rasmussen’s polling also found that a large majority of voters say illegal immigration is a critical issue for them in the up-and-coming midterm elections. 72% of likely voters consider illegal immigration to be an important factor in casting their vote in the November midterm elections, with 42% of that majority saying it is “very important.”
As long as immigration remains at the top of voters’ minds, then the Democratic Party is in trouble walking into the midterms. But immigration is not the only factor taken into account when assessing the reality of the Democratic Party’s hopes in November.
Fundraising has turned out to be a major drag for the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the organization responsible for delivering Democrat candidates a strong ground game come election season.
In July of 2018, the Republican National Committee (RNC) raised $14.2 million, making it the most money the GOP has raised in any month during a nonpresidential election year. The amount of money raised in July of 2018 accounted for more money raised in both July of 2010 and July 0f 2014, combined.
RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said that the record setting fundraising year has been a result of “unprecedented” grassroots support for both President Trump and the GOP. For the RNC, the entire year has been record-setting and that trend seems to be growing with the economy.
According to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC), the RNC has hauled in $227.2 million, year to date. In contrast, the DNC has raised a mere $109 million as of the end of June. That’s less than half of what their Republican counterparts were able to raise. This reveals not only a fracture within the Democratic Party but also a reluctance on behalf of democrat voters in funding the party’s platform.
This fracture can be further revealed through the #Walkaway movement. This movement, started by NYC hairstylist Brandon Straka in May of 2018, shows that many voters who once identified as ‘blue collar democrats’ no longer have a desire to remain members of the Democratic Party.
The #Walkaway Facebook page has gained about 100,000 followers since its inception and promotes stories from former Democrats who wish to share their reasoning behind leaving the Democratic Party. The movement seems to grow by the day, a trend that is sure to continue while the Democratic Party’s leadership proceeds with adopting socialist policies into their platform. Often times the loudest voices tend to be the most irrational however, DNC leadership seemed to have decided on addressing the demands of their fringe base rather than their moderates.
Finally, the last round of primary elections provided some great insight with regard to what we should expect in the up-and-coming midterm elections this November. Most notably, Florida.
Many Democrats are pointing towards Florida as a “bell weather” regarding their chances in November’s midterm elections. It is true that Andrew Gillum pulled off an upset victory in the end and congratulations to him for doing so however, his win was only made possible as a result of the underlying issues explained above.
The Florida gubernatorial primary elections did not hinge so much on illegal immigration since many of the candidates are on the same page regarding this issue. Illegal immigration is considered a national issue that will certainly garner more attention in the general however, the deep divisions currently troubling the Democratic Party and fundraising issues were front and center.
Andrew Gillum won his party’s candidacy for Florida Governor, late support from George Soros and Tom Steyer are said to have put him over the top since grassroots donations were extremely lacking. There were three major candidates in Florida’s Democratic Gubernatorial primary race; Andrew Gillum, Gwen Graham, and Philip Levine. There were also a handful of outliers that received a surprising amount of votes as well.
Andrew Gillum beat Gwen Graham by only three percentage points and the vote share was spread across all three candidates. Gillum won the race with 34.3% of the vote, Graham received 31.3%, Levine took 20.3%, and the outlier candidates received 14.2%.
In contrast, the Florida Republican Primary was populated by only two major candidates, congressman Ron DeSantis and Adam Putnam. DeSantis won with 56.5% of the vote versus Putnam’s 36.5%. The outlier candidates in the Republican Primary didn’t account for more than 2%, respectively. If Florida can tell us one thing it’s that Republicans are unified and have largely decided to migrate towards similar candidates while Democrats are split, almost down the middle, on who they wish to support. This also means that a large share of the voters who cast a ballot for any other candidate than Gillum will feel alienated and less energized to vote in the midterms.
Voter turnout in Florida’s gubernatorial primary elections should also be considered a major alarm for Democrats. We’ve all heard that “democrats are energized to vote against Trump” however, that narrative did not make an appearance in Florida’s gubernatorial race.
In total, Democrats received 1,464,960 votes while Republicans received 1,618,423 votes, as reported by the News York Times. These numbers represent nearly an 11% differential in voter turnout in the Republican Party’s favor.
President Trump held a televised rally in Florida in order to announce his support for Ron DeSantis. DeSantis shot up in the polls almost immediately following President Trump’s endorsement and went on to win his party’s candidacy for Florida’s general gubernatorial race in November by 20 percentage points.
If anything, Florida showed the country that the ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric has been largely overblown and Democrats will only further hurt their chances in November by relying on such a false narrative.
None of the problems outlined above have been addressed by the Democratic Party thus far. In fact, they seem strangely unbothered by these issues. Many Democrat leaders seem to have dove headfirst into the anti-Trump end of the pool and they refuse to transition to an alternative strategy however, judging from the issues raised above, they do so at their own peril.
For Democrats, ignorance is bliss… until the morning of November 7th, 2018.
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